Following the initial presidential debate, a group of key Biden allies and campaign officials have emphasized a consistent message: The fundamental dynamics of the race have not shifted.
In essence, they are correct.
The most recent New York Times/Siena College poll indicates that, rather than altering the course of the election, the debate reinforced the central narrative: President Biden’s political decline, as he no longer retains the advantages that propelled him to victory over Donald J. Trump four years ago.
Overall, the poll results show Mr. Trump leading Mr. Biden by six percentage points among likely voters and nine points among registered voters nationwide. In both cases, there has been a three-point shift towards Mr. Trump since the previous Times/Siena survey conducted just before the debate.
Historically, a three-point shift post-debate is not uncommon. In fact, it is the norm. In the past seven presidential elections, the perceived winner of the first debate typically gains an average of three points in post-debate polls. While the impact may vary, debates seldom fundamentally alter the course of a race.
From a polling perspective, this debate is no exception — at least not yet. The debate could potentially serve as a turning point for Democratic leaders contemplating their support for Mr. Biden, but the poll does not indicate a complete reversal in public opinion about the candidates. Instead, the debate exacerbated Mr. Biden’s existing political vulnerabilities, which were already jeopardizing his chances of re-election.
Four years ago, Mr. Biden’s victory over Mr. Trump was facilitated by the absence of significant political liabilities. He secured the Democratic nomination and ultimately the presidency due to being a well-liked, moderately centrist, broadly acceptable candidate capable of uniting a diverse set of voters who disapproved of Mr. Trump. At the time, polls showed that a majority of voters viewed Mr. Biden favorably, which was sufficient for him to narrowly win in the Electoral College across key battleground states.
The current polling indicates that Mr. Biden is no longer perceived as a broadly acceptable candidate, resulting in his trailing behind Mr. Trump. Even before the debate, his approval and favorability ratings had plummeted to precarious levels for an incumbent. Despite conditions seemingly ripe for a Biden resurgence, such as declining inflation and an intensifying general election campaign, his numbers continued to decline. One plausible explanation for this sustained erosion is growing apprehension about his age.
By all metrics, the poll reveals that the debate further diminished public perception of Mr. Biden. His favorability rating dropped by two points post-debate, from 38 percent to 36 percent. In stark contrast, it stood at 52 percent in the final Times/Siena poll before the 2020 election.
The percentage of voters who believe Mr. Biden is “too old to be an effective president” increased by five points, from 69 percent to 74 percent post-debate. In June 2020, only 36 percent held this view.
These marginal shifts following a debate may not carry significant weight in the larger context. It does not constitute a “fundamental” change. What truly matters is a 15- or 30-point shift over a span of four years. While Mr. Biden may occasionally outperform his previous showings, the overall trend suggests that the accumulation of various interactions, speeches, visuals, and social media content has led much of the public to doubt his suitability for the presidency.
Throughout the election cycle, the optimistic scenario for Mr. Biden hinged on the belief that voters would increasingly focus on Mr. Trump’s deficiencies as the campaign progressed. The idea was that disengaged voters would engage and vote based on democratic values and key issues, much like in the midterm elections.
Despite Mr. Trump maintaining his unpopularity from four years ago, the debate failed to capitalize on this optimistic narrative. Millions of viewers tuned in to watch the Biden-Trump showdown, with the spotlight shifting to Mr. Biden’s age rather than the substantive issues that could secure him victory.
Historically, post-debate poll shifts tend to be fleeting. Candidates perceived as losing in one debate may bounce back in the next, or successfully redirect attention to their opponent. With many Democrats grappling over whether to continue supporting Mr. Biden, it seems unlikely that the focus will shift away from concerns about the president’s age in the near future. Furthermore, Mr. Biden’s performance raises doubts about his ability to persuade skeptics of his fitness for the role. However, if he manages to allay his party’s doubts, Mr. Trump’s low favorability ratings suggest a path to a more competitive race.
The Times/Siena data provides limited support for another reason behind poll fluctuations post-debate: the tendency for the perceived debate winner’s supporters to respond to polls in greater numbers. In contrast to the pre-debate poll, Democrats and Republicans participated in this week’s poll in nearly equal proportions (adjusted for demographics), consistent with previous Times/Siena polls over the past year. If the previous poll slightly favored Mr. Trump, it is plausible that he has gained even more ground than indicated by the three-point shift.
It remains uncertain whether Mr. Biden’s age is his sole, major, or just one of many challenges. Perhaps lingering discontent over economic issues and border security would still give Mr. Trump an edge against a hypothetical younger Mr. Biden. Economic concerns continue to rank as the top priority for voters in the poll. Alternatively, voters may be seeking changes that they doubt Mr. Biden and the Democrats, who have been in power for a significant portion of the past 16 years, can deliver.
If Mr. Biden fails to convince voters — or his own party — of his presidential fitness, the other obstacles may become inconsequential.
