Commentary
Fueling Conspiracy Theories
Independent Chinese TV producer Li Jun explained on the show that Mr. Raisi and his Foreign Minister were en route to Iran’s East Azerbaijan Province on May 19. On their return trip, the helicopter they were aboard lost contact while flying through a mountainous region in heavy fog, resulting in a “hard landing incident.” Iran dispatched 73 rescue teams who braved fog and rain, with visibility of less than 20 feet, to search the rugged terrain. By the early hours of May 20, they located the wreckage. The helicopter had crashed into a mountain and was completely destroyed by fire, killing all passengers.
The Iranian authorities have yet to provide any reasons for the crash or suggest that the helicopter was sabotaged. However, various theories have been circulating online. Some pointed out that there were three helicopters in total, and the ones before and after landed safely, while only the one carrying the President and the Foreign Minister crashed. They argue that weather could not have been the cause if the other helicopters were unaffected.
Mr. Li mentioned that the theory of a Mossad assassination is prevalent online, as Mossad is known for its sophisticated methods. Modern assassinations often look like “accidents,” including plane crashes, highway accidents, and sudden heart attacks.
“Interestingly, on May 18, the United States and Iran held promising negotiations in Oman, with both sides willing to continue,” he said. “If the United States and Iran’s negotiations reach a positive outcome, Israel would be the most concerned. The next day, the Iranian President’s helicopter crashed, which many find too coincidental, leading to speculation that Mossad was behind it. However, Israeli officials promptly denied any involvement.”
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Iranian state media reported that the helicopter Mr. Raisi was aboard was a Bell 212, likely purchased before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Due to Western sanctions, Iran has struggled to obtain new parts for its aging fleet, which led to speculation that the helicopter’s age was a major cause of the accident.
Mr. Li also noted that Mr. Raisi was known for his hardline stance domestically, reportedly responsible for the deaths of nearly a thousand dissidents in Iran. In the wake of his death, some Iranians celebrated with fireworks, and Iranian expatriates were seen celebrating outside the Iranian Embassy in London.
Power Dynamics in the Middle East
Guo Jun, the editor-in-chief of The Epoch Times Hong Kong edition, said on “Pinnacle View” that the Iranian President is not the most powerful figure in the country. The Supreme Leader, selected by the Assembly of Experts for Leadership, comprising 88 senior Islamic clerics, holds the ultimate authority. Currently, Ali Khamenei holds this position, making him the real decision-maker and the most powerful person in Iran, not Mr. Raisi.
Iran’s military force is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which operates independently of the government and is loyal to the Supreme Leader. Ms. Guo said that in recent years, especially during conflicts with the United States and Israel, the IRGC has played a crucial role in launching attacks as well as crisis management. For example, after the United States killed IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in a drone strike in 2020, Iran reportedly informed the United States of their planned retaliatory strikes to prevent escalation.
Ms. Guo suggested that Iran’s foreign influence, particularly through support for proxy groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, will likely continue even after Mr. Raisi’s death. While there might be some subtle changes in Iran’s foreign policy, especially with Israel, the core alliances with China and Russia, which form a quasi-alliance axis, will probably remain unchanged.
She also highlighted the three main powers in the Middle East: Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Iran’s influence is rooted in the Shia Islamic world, while Saudi Arabia’s influence is primarily in the Aran and Sunni Islamic worlds. The regional balance of power often shifts between these two sects, influencing the broader Middle Eastern landscape.
Clash of Civilizations
Shi Shan, columnist and senior editor of the Chinese edition of The Epoch Times, discussed on a talk show the challenges of cooperation among autocratic regimes due to their nationalist ideologies. However, in the face of a common enemy, they may come together temporarily.
“I remember back in the 90s, there was a famous book by Harvard Professor Samuel Huntington, the “Clash of Civilizations,” which predicted alliances like those between China, Russia, and Iran against the Western world,” he said.
Ms. Guo pointed out that Huntington’s theory, which faced criticism in the 1990s, has been validated over time, especially with the alliances formed by China, Russia, and Iran. Huntington argued that future conflicts would be between civilizations with different value systems and political structures, particularly authoritarian regimes forming blocs against the dominant liberal democratic values of Western civilization.
A Warning to Dictators
Hu Liren, a former Chinese entrepreneur living in exile in the United States, mentioned on “Pinnacle View” that Iran’s survival amid international sanctions was partly due to China’s support. China is Iran’s largest oil purchaser and supplies various goods and technologies to Iran, including those sanctioned by the United States and its allies.
Mr. Hu emphasized that Iran, part of the “axis of evil” with China, Russia, and North Korea, maintains strategic alliances despite challenges. However, Mr. Raisi’s mysterious death serves as a warning to other dictators worldwide. He revealed that despite the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) official state atheism, Chinese leaders often engage in superstitious practices, fearing the fall of authoritarian regimes.
“Mr. Raisi’s death could have a significant psychological impact on leaders like Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, reinforcing the precariousness of their positions,” he said.
Michael Zhuang contributed to this report.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
