Stephen Kotkin is a renowned historian of Russia, a fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and the author of a highly acclaimed three-volume biography of Joseph Stalin. (The third volume is forthcoming.) Kotkin has also written extensively on geopolitics, American power, and the complexities of the Trump era. Executive Editor Justin Vogt interviewed Kotkin on Wednesday, November 6, following Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the U.S. presidential election.
You’ve contributed several articles to Foreign Affairs about the conflict in Ukraine and its implications for the world and American foreign policy. Given the current situation, what do you think Russian President Vladimir Putin is contemplating now that Donald Trump is set to begin his second term in the White House?
It’s difficult to say for certain, as the regimes in Moscow and Beijing are notoriously secretive. However, based on their actions and public statements, it is clear that they perceive the United States as being in a state of irreversible decline. Past events such as the Iraq War, the 2008 financial crisis, and subsequent failures have reinforced their belief in America’s weakening power. While Trump may appear to align with their views due to his stance on alliances, it is important to consider that American strength did not significantly improve under previous administrations. Trump’s unpredictability could either exacerbate this perceived decline or potentially lead to unexpected outcomes. Despite his rhetoric, Trump’s actions may surprise our adversaries and impact alliances and American power in various ways.
Regarding Ukraine, Trump’s uncertain stance could have varying consequences. His lack of a clear position on the matter leaves room for multiple outcomes, both positive and negative for Ukraine. It is challenging to predict the future under Trump’s leadership, as his decisions can be unpredictable even to himself. The idea that Trump is solely advantageous to our adversaries is not necessarily accurate, as he may take actions that strengthen American power and alliances. The situation is complex and could yield diverse results.
Given the current circumstances, what advice would you offer Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky?
