With a small number of undecided voters, campaigns are likely to focus on voter mobilization as the election approaches.
Despite former President Donald Trumpâs conviction on 34 felony counts in New York, recent polls indicate that opinions about the 2024 presidential election have remained largely unchanged.
While Trumpâs popularity has slightly decreased in one national poll, he has gained support in three states, including battleground states like Arizona and Nevada.
Minimal Change Overall
At the beginning of Trumpâs trial in New York, he held a slight lead over President Biden in national polls. However, a week after the trial verdict, Trumpâs lead had increased slightly in some polls.
A detailed post-verdict poll by The New York Times and Siena College found that despite a small decrease in Trumpâs national popularity, he still maintained a lead over Biden. The majority of Trump supporters remained loyal, with few changing their minds.
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Among those who changed their minds, few shifted to supporting President Biden, while some became undecided. A significant portion of those no longer supporting Trump are considered âdouble haters,â meaning they dislike both candidates.
According to pollster Neil Newhouse, the conviction has had minimal impact on the presidential ballot test.
As the election nears, the upcoming debates between President Biden and former President Trump could influence undecided voters more than Trumpâs legal issues, says political science professor Patricia Crouse from The University of New Haven.
Battleground States Favoring Trump
Former President Trump continues to hold a lead in key states like Arizona, Nevada, and Virginia, which could play a crucial role in the 2024 election.
Polls conducted in June indicate that Trumpâs conviction in New York has not significantly affected voter opinion in Nevada and Arizona. Trump leads Biden in both states by the same margin as before the trial.
These states were won by President Biden in 2020, making the shift in support a concern for his campaign.
With a large percentage of independent voters, the party that can attract these voters often wins. However, the number of truly undecided voters appears to be small this year, with many voters expressing dislike for both candidates.
According to Neil Newhouse, voter turnout may be lower due to frustration with the choices available.
Patricia Crouse notes that voter turnout may be a concern, as many voters have been turned off by the ongoing issues in the election.
Former President Trump emphasized the importance of reaching out to evangelicals, gun owners, and other key demographics during a town hall meeting in Phoenix on June 6. He stressed the need for both campaigns to make a better effort in engaging with these groups to secure their votes.
The Republican Party has shifted its approach to voting by mail this year, recognizing its significance in the electoral process. In contrast to 2020, where Democrats took advantage of mail-in voting while Republicans discouraged it, the GOP is now embracing this method in states where it is allowed.
Despite widespread dissatisfaction with the candidates, voters are also discontent with the current direction of the country, motivating them to participate in the upcoming election. Jimmy Lee of Susquehanna Polling noted that a significant percentage of the electorate remains undecided, creating a crucial opportunity for both campaigns to sway these voters.
According to Mr. Lee, the election outcome is likely to be influenced by these late-breaking undecided voters, especially in battleground states where the race is expected to be closely contested. The key lies in appealing to these individuals on a personal level to secure their support.
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