According to FBI data released on Monday, violent crime decreased by 3 percent nationwide last year. This drop includes significant decreases in murder and rape (11.6 percent and 9.4 percent, respectively), as well as smaller declines in aggravated assault (2.8 percent) and robbery (0.3 percent). The FBI also reported a 2.4 percent overall drop in property crime, although car thefts increased by 12.6 percent.
These numbers challenge former President Donald Trump’s claim that crime is increasing across the country, a trend he attributes to the Biden administration and Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump’s assertion that “homicides are skyrocketing” does not align with the FBI’s data or data from various other sources.
The Trump campaign argues that the FBI’s numbers may be misleading due to changes in reporting systems. However, the FBI states that the 2023 numbers are based on data from agencies covering 94.3 percent of the U.S. population, an increase from 65 percent in 2021.
The Trump campaign also points to the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) as providing a more accurate picture of crime rates. According to the NCVS, the violent victimization rate fell by 29 percent between 2018 and 2020, remained steady in 2021, and increased by 42 percent in 2022.
The property victimization rate fell by about 13 percent between 2018 and 2020, declined in 2021, and rose by 12 percent in 2022. Last year, the rate remained stable.
Although Trump claims that violent crime is on the rise, the NCVS data shows a different trend. The Trump campaign insists that violent crime (excluding homicides) increased by 37% between 2020 and last year.
Last year saw a significant drop in homicides, with preliminary data suggesting an even larger reduction in 2024. AH Datalytics reports that murders are down by 17.6 percent so far this year based on a sample of 277 cities.
