Former President Donald Trump’s proposed mass deportation plan, touted as “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history,” has been widely criticized as a moral calamity that would not only require a significant expansion of government but also have devastating economic consequences for the United States.
According to a recent report by the American Immigration Council (AIC), the infrastructure needed to arrest, process, and deport an estimated 13 million undocumented immigrants would incur costs close to $1 trillion over a decade and result in a significant blow to economic growth. The report suggests that implementing such a mass deportation plan could diminish America’s GDP by at least 4.2%, primarily due to the loss of workers in industries already facing labor shortages.
Trump’s proposal involves the creation of a “deportation force” to target approximately 11 million individuals without permanent legal status as of 2022 and an additional 2.3 million people who entered the country without legal status since January 2023, as per the Department of Homeland Security.
The AIC report estimates an annual cost of around $88 billion for a mass deportation initiative, totaling $967 billion over ten years. This substantial expenditure would necessitate the expansion of immigration detention facilities, courtrooms, and other essential infrastructure, along with the recruitment of thousands of additional federal employees. In essence, implementing a mass deportation strategy would be financially burdensome, operationally costly, and challenging to reverse once established.
Furthermore, the economic repercussions of mass deportation would reverberate across various sectors. The reduction in labor supply would lead to economic contraction and a decline in federal tax revenues. Industries like construction, where an estimated 14% of workers are undocumented migrants, would be particularly hard hit, with ripple effects felt throughout the economy.
While proponents of immigration restriction often argue that deporting undocumented workers would create job opportunities for Americans, the reality is more nuanced. A shrinking economy resulting from mass deportation would negatively impact a broad spectrum of workers beyond those directly affected by the policy.
Similar estimates were provided by analysts at the Penn Wharton Budget Center (PWBM), projecting costs exceeding $1 trillion over a decade for deporting over 14 million unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. Marketwatch, which reported on the PWBM findings, highlighted the significant financial implications and potential labor shortages associated with such a drastic measure.
It is important to acknowledge that illegal immigration does carry fiscal costs. A recent study from the Manhattan Institute estimates that undocumented immigrants entering the U.S. since 2021 could cost taxpayers approximately $1.15 trillion over their lifetimes.
However, the same report emphasizes that overall immigration, when managed effectively, can benefit the U.S. economy and contribute to reducing federal budget deficits. According to Daniel DiMartino, author of the Manhattan Institute report, the average new immigrant, particularly those who are younger and college-educated, has a positive fiscal impact and helps decrease the federal budget deficit.
Both reports underscore the need to reform America’s immigration system to facilitate legal immigration, rather than pursuing costly and detrimental deportation measures. Addressing immigration challenges through a more pragmatic and comprehensive approach would be a more constructive use of political resources.
