Commentary
The Taiwan Strait has long been a focal point of U.S.-China contention, with the U.S. military asserting that the risk of conflict never diminished despite turmoil in other parts of the world. The present time has become the most dangerous moment for the region.
On May 3, during a handover ceremony at the Pearl Harbor Memorial Museum in Hawaii, Adm. John Aquilino, former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (Indopacom), transferred the torch to the new commander, Adm. Samuel Paparo.
During the ceremony, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said China is the only country with “both the will and … the capacity to dominate the Indo-Pacific,” and it “continues to engage in increasingly coercive behavior” in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and beyond.
Adm. Aquilino noted the present as the “most dangerous time” in his 40-year tenure of service but said that Indopacom is ready for these challenges.
“I will sleep soundly—as a matter of fact, it will be the first time I’ve slept in three years—knowing that Pappy [Adm. Samuel Paparo] is at the controls,” he said.
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Adm. Paparo pushed for accelerated experimentation with unmanned systems during his time in the Pacific Fleet. In 2022, he established the Navy’s first Unmanned Surface Vessel Division. He also advocated for a force of hundreds or thousands of small drones to help repel a potential invasion of Taiwan by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) forces.
Invade Taiwan Before 2027?
Although Xi denied in late 2023 that a timetable exists for invading Taiwan between 2027 and 2035, this does not contradict the preparations being made for a potential invasion by 2027. Whether the CCP has a timetable is unclear. Still, people can see that Beijing is accelerating the development of offensive military equipment, with the most notable being the construction of the third aircraft carrier, the Fujian. Observers are particularly attentive to the speed at which the CCP is increasing its naval vessels and building new aircraft carriers.
The public has been speculating about what the CCP’s preparation for invading Taiwan by 2027 means. In fact, it’s not difficult to gauge based on what it is currently doing, which mainly involves two main aspects: preparing the force structure and developing key weapons systems.
Regarding weapons systems, one of the main focuses is on the development and construction of aircraft carriers.
Three years remain until 2027, which is enough time for a brand-new aircraft carrier to go from sea trials to combat readiness. In other words, while other equipment continues to develop, the Fujian, a new conventionally powered aircraft carrier that may carry fifth-generation shipboard aircraft, could enter a combat-ready state. This could be one of the main indicators of the CCP’s preparation for invading Taiwan by military means.
Currently, the Fujian is undergoing sea trials, highlighting the existence of the Chinese regime’s aircraft carriers, their capabilities, and their construction speed. The CCP has deployed dual aircraft carrier battle groups like the U.S. Navy. This means the Chinese navy is rapidly expanding its global power projection capability to establish a presence, exert influence, and even control specific regions through maritime and aerial attack capabilities.
It aligns with the communist regime’s consistently demonstrated expansionist ambition, aiming to become the dominant global power and extend its influence far beyond the Pacific region. Despite the CCP’s intention to deploy only three aircraft carriers in the future, which is significantly fewer than the U.S. Navy’s 11 carriers, concerns are mounting over the regime’s accelerated equipment development facilitated by integrated military-civilian production capabilities. This rapid progress indicates a potential narrowing of the gap with the U.S. military.
CCP Aircraft Carrier Not as Strong as US
How dangerous is the CCP’s aircraft carrier fleet?
Does the U.S. Navy have genuine concerns about the Fujian because it adopts a similar electromagnetic catapult system to that of U.S. aircraft carriers?
It seems not.
The U.S. military believes that the Chinese aircraft carrier fleet does not pose a real threat to the U.S. Navy due to the limited capabilities of its carrier air wing. Aircraft carriers can only maximize their combat power within the range achievable by their carrier air wing. No matter how advanced the aircraft carrier is, it is only a mobile platform for supporting fighter aircraft.
The CCP does not yet have a fifth-generation stealth fighter capable of maritime launch.
The development of a prototype similar to the F-35C, called the J-31, is ongoing but has not yet been put into mass production or equipped with the military. Even if the J-31 is finalized, completing mass production and forming combat capability within three years may be a challenge.
The J-31 is not a naval variant of the J-20 but more like a fifth-generation carrier-based aircraft developed specifically for the Chinese navy. This sets it apart from the F-35, which is an independently developed joint multi-role fighter. The concept of the J-31 is different from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, emphasizing a broader range of joint battlefield information control.
China’s fifth-generation fighter, the J-20, is limited to taking off from land and requires aerial refueling and forward bases for maximum effectiveness. There is no record of the J-20’s aerial assault capabilities at sea, making it unlikely that the Chinese navy will possess a fifth-generation aircraft carrier by 2027.
Questions arise regarding China’s deployment of the Fujian in 2027 and its potential threat to the United States and regional allies. The vulnerability of Chinese naval forces to attack by U.S. F-35s and allies’ F-35s poses a significant challenge to China’s maritime air power.
The CCP’s development of aircraft carriers, including a possible nuclear-powered fourth carrier, suggests military preparations for invading Taiwan. The necessity of an aircraft carrier in encircling the Philippine Sea around Taiwan underscores the importance of China’s anti-intervention/area denial strategy.
The United States counters the CCP strategy through forward deployment in the Indo-Pacific region and strengthening air defense capabilities. The CCP’s preparations for attacking Taiwan face risks in the Western Pacific, potentially resulting in failure if aircraft carriers are put at risk.
Overall, the CCP’s military assets aimed at attacking Taiwan encounter significant risks and challenges in the face of U.S. and regional allies’ defenses in the Western Pacific.
*Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.* Can you please rewrite this sentence?
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